Home > Conservatives, Federal, Liberals, NDP > Four Possible Outcomes Of January 26th; NDP Must Be Prepared

Four Possible Outcomes Of January 26th; NDP Must Be Prepared

December 4, 2008

As I see it, there are four things that could happen on January 26th:

  1. Liberals abandon the coalition and let the Conservatives survive.
  2. Some Liberals revolt and let the Conservatives survive.
  3. The Conservatives fall and the Governor-General calls an election.
  4. The Conservatives fall and the Governor-General lets the Coalition govern.

As New Democrats, we must prepare for all four outcomes.

Option #1 would be an decent outcome for the NDP. Not only have the Liberals completely shattered their argument that the NDP shouldn’t govern (why would they be in cabinet of a coalition), but it also finally puts to rest all of those protests from those progressives that keep telling the NDP to cooperate with the Liberals. The Liberals would also suffer from a variety of credibility problems. Option #2 would be similar, but way more messier.

If the Coalition survives to hold a vote of non-confidence against the Conservatives, then Harper is probably going to ask for an election from the Governor-General (#3). Seeing as the prescident from this Governor-General is to listen to the advice of the Prime Minister (prorogue, anybody?), I suspect that this is a rather likely outcome. Therefore, election preparation must start now.

If, lo-and-behold, opition #4 actually happens, then the NDP should get to work and govern this country as part of a coalition.

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  1. janfromthebruce
    December 4, 2008 at 7:52 pm

    I hope for the sake of the country and ordinary Canadians it is option 4. Personally, I think it would be a very dynamic responsive coalition govt and Canadians would like it.

  2. In Ottawa
    December 4, 2008 at 8:53 pm

    If option #3, which is what if the coalition wins in the House but instead of taking government, the GG calls an election, what are the preparations to be made for the election? You missed that out of your advice, although the question is pretty important. Should it be like preparations for the last election?

    A clear win would be for all sitting coalition Members to run unopposed in their own ridings by other coalition parties against Harper’s challengers, and in all of Harper’s ridings, run only the coalition party that came in second against the conservative incumbent.

    That’s what a coalition that really wanted to win would do…

  3. Former Dipper
    December 4, 2008 at 8:55 pm

    We wouldn’t even have Prime Minister Stephen Harper if not for the misguided self-interest of Jack Layton. Our only hope is to join the Liberal Party now so we can influence their leadership.

  4. December 4, 2008 at 9:45 pm

    “Seeing as the prescident from this Governor-General is to listen to the advice of the Prime Minister (prorogue, anybody?), I suspect that this is a rather likely outcome. Therefore, election preparation must start now.”

    NBC Dipper, I agree entirely. As the President of my local riding association I’ve already been in touch with other area presidents and asked that we very seriously consider election preparedness. My guess was that the GG would grant Harper the prorogation, and I just can’t see how the GG would not call an election if the government were to fall at the end of January. It will have been 3.5 months from the prior election day, which, while short, is definitely likely to suggest ‘election’ than ‘coalition’. Harper may have miscalculated, but he’s not stupid – there is a reason he has been Prime Minister for close to three years and this is the first chance that the opposition has even had to try and replace him.

  5. Joffré
    December 4, 2008 at 9:50 pm

    I think that in the case of either option 1 or 2, the NDP would have a very real opportunity to realign Canadian politics by uniting the left on its terms, especially if the revolt is seen as having been led by Ignatieff and he goes on to win the leadership. I think that with a bit of finesse, it’d be possible in that case to go up to a dozen or two Liberal MPs and Elizabeth May with a proposal to found a Progressive Party six months down the line.

  6. Derek
    December 4, 2008 at 10:07 pm

    I disagree with the idea that because the GG gave Harper his prorogation – there is much chance that she would grant his demand for an election if defeated in January. These are two very different situations. Most experts felt that Jean had little choice but to prorogue since Harper is PM and its almost unheard of for a GG to refuse to do something that a PM who has confidence demands. It would be a totally different situation if Harper fell on an opposition non-confidence motion that explicitly states that a “viable alternative government” can be formed along with a letter from the three opposition leaders. The consensus among the experts is that Jean would be almost certain to invite the opposition to govern. I think that if the coalition actually managed to stick together until late January – it would show that it was quite viable.

  7. Barry
    December 6, 2008 at 1:49 pm

    Mr.Harper wanted an election in the first place, he has manifested this crisis on purpose, he had 7 weeks to provide a economic package and he did nothing. He threw gasoline on the fire when he was going stop funding to Politicial parties during elections. Mr.Harper just exposed his hidden agenda, to bankrupt the opposition parties by going to the polls as much as he can and if he gets a majority he will cut off all funding except donations. Donation refunds is a bigger Government expense than the 30 million proposed to withdraw. Even in America they have two strong parties.

  8. December 11, 2008 at 6:27 pm

    It was mostly the Liberals who suffered from vote splitting in the last election. Here’s a list of good two way races which if half of them succeed in unseating the Conservative MP we would see a Liberal led coalition government.

    Keith Milligan Lib vs. Gail Shea
    Gordon Earle NDP vs. Gerald Keddy
    Robert Thibault Lib vs. Greg Kerr
    David Innes Lib vs. Keith Ashfield
    Charles Hubbard Lib vs. Tiley O’Neil-Gordon
    Paul Zed Lib vs. Rodney Weston
    Éléonore Mainguy BQ vs. Sylvie Boucher
    Denis Courteau BQ vs. Daniel Petit
    Cindy Duncan McMillan Lib vs. Lawrence Duncan
    Claude Pilote BQ vs. Denis Lebel
    Lloyd St. Amand Lib vs. Phil McColeman
    Susan Whelan Lib vs. Jeff Watson
    Dan Boudria Lib vs. Pierre Lemieux
    Eric Hoskins Lib vs.Diane Finley
    Garth Turner Lib vs. Lisa Raitt
    Greg McClinchey Lib vs. Ben Lobb
    Roger Valley Lib vs. Greg Rickford
    Karen Redman Lib vs. Stephen Woodworth
    Andrew Telegdi Lib vs. Peter Braid
    Sue Barnes Lib vs. Ed Holder
    Omar Alghabra Lib vs. Bob Dechert
    Tim Jones Lib vs Lois Brown
    Lui Temelkovski Lib vs. Paul Calandra
    M.A. Bonnie Brown Lib vs. Terrence Young
    Mike Sheilds NDP vs. Colin Carrie
    Marc Godbout Lib vs. Royal Galipeau
    David Pratt Lib vs. John Baird
    Walt Lastewka Lib vs. Rick Dykstra
    Susan Kadis Lib vs. Peter Kent
    Peggy Nash NDP vs. Jim Flaherty
    Raymond Simard Lib vs. Shelly Glover
    John Loewen Lib vs. Rod Bruinooge
    David Orchard Lib vs. Rob Clarke<
    Don Mitchell NDP vs. Hon. Ray Boughen
    Nettie Wiebe NDP vs. Kelly Block
    Kirt Kootoo Ejesiak Lib vs. Leona Aglukkaq
    James Ford Ind. Vs. Tim Uppal
    Brenda Locke Lib. vs. Nina Grewal
    Micheal Crawford NDP vs. Cathy McLeod
    Zeni Maartman NDP vs. James Lunney
    Don Bell Lib vs. Andrew Saxton
    Briony Penn Lib. vs. Gary Lunn
    Rachid Arab NDP vs. Dona Cadman
    Catherine Bell NDP vs. John Duncan
    Ian Sutherland Lib vs. John Weston

    If our two parties choose not to run against each other in each of these riding races, we could see anything from Liberal Minority with NDP and Independent balance of power or a coalition government with Bloc balance of power.
    This is dependant on the Christian Heritage Party taking the same 26,722 votes away from the party that tried to take the funding from each of those votes away. (The CHP is eligible for $52,107.90 of public funds. The Progressive Canadian Party will be receiving $11,544 to steal votes away from the regressive Conservatives. Elizabeth May will be running a campaign against Peter MacKay with $1,834,456.65 of public funds in a riding that includes the CHP.)

  9. Rod Smelser
    December 17, 2008 at 12:15 pm

    Briony Penn Lib. vs. Gary Lunn

    I consider this to be a very, very special case which is not yet closed. I am expecting in the near future to hear a great deal of additional background, and a more critical press analysis, of the events surrounding the resignation of the NDP candidate.

    Please remember that one of the leading figures in the BC environmental movement, Will Horter, earlier exhorted the Greens not to run a candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands. The Greens ignored his advice. But the point was clear, that many who call themselves environmentalists were fully determined to alter the party political landscape in whatever way might help Liberal Penn win the seat.

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