Home > Conservatives, Federal, Liberals > By-Elections And Conventions: Why A Fall Election Is Unlikely

By-Elections And Conventions: Why A Fall Election Is Unlikely

August 17, 2008

There has been a lot of talk of a fall election lately, what with Harper and Dion both making noises. However, I believe that with the Don Valley West by-election being called for September 22, the chances of actually having an election this fall are slim.

After all, both the Liberals and Conservatives are holding their conventions this fall, with the Conservatives holding theirs on November 13 and the Liberals holding theirs December 4. Now conventions are costly things to hold, with much of the organizational staff being the same types that would serve as a core staff for an election event. Therefore, I’d assume that both parties would try to avoid nullifying their Conventions by an avoidable thing like an election.

According to Canadian Law, an election campaign period must be a minimum 36 days long.

36 days minus the Conservative convention date of November 13 equals October 8.

36 days minus the Liberal convention date of December 4 equals October 29.

Therefore assuming that the political parties try to avoid an election call during the by-elections, the Conservative election calling window would be from September 22 to October 8 and the Liberal election calling window would be from September 22 to October 29. Realistically, the election calling window would probably be shorter.

Of course, all of this is null and void if one of the political parties believes that losing their investment on a convention is a worthy sacrifice for a better political future…

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  1. August 18, 2008 at 7:50 am

    the Cons can afford it…The Liberals can’t afford not to have an election.

  1. August 22, 2008 at 4:09 pm
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