Home > Conservatives, Federal, Liberals > Budget Probably Follows Pattern; Contains Liberal Sugar Pill

Budget Probably Follows Pattern; Contains Liberal Sugar Pill

February 26, 2008

The long awaited budget has come out.

I’ll bet that this pattern, which I proposed in October of last year, will be followed yet again, and the budget will pass:

  1. Conservatives bring up something that could be a confidence measure.
  2. Media and Blogosphere speculates how said motion will have a “poison pill”, something that makes the Liberals vote against the motion and therefore cause the government to fall.
  3. Motion contains stuff that the Conservatives have been talking about for a while; no “poison pills”
  4. Motion passes.

On the topic of “poison pills”, you’ll notice that there is a nice “sugar pill” for the Liberals:

“But we can do more to support our seniors. Today, we are increasing the Guaranteed Income Supplement exemption to $3,500, from the current maximum of $500. This will benefit low and modest-income seniors who choose to continue working,” the budget states.

Sound familiar to any Liberal?

“A new Liberal government would help lift vulnerable seniors out of poverty by increasing the Guaranteed Income Supplement payments for the lowest income seniors, ensure that the loss of a partner does not drive the surviving spouse below the low-income threshold, and encourage and reward those seniors who choose to participate in the workforce.”

With no poison pill, a sugar pill, and a lack of willingness of some Liberal MPs to go to an election, I think that the budget will pass.

I suspect that any other non-confidence motion in this session of Parliament will probably pass too. I do suspect, however, that the longer the Liberals hold off on the election, the more it will be to their determent.

Update 2:00 PM PST 02/26/2008: Yup, the Liberals are supporting it.

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  1. February 26, 2008 at 9:19 pm

    http://photosc.msspro.com/fedelect/tweedledion.htm

    pass this around
    Tweedledee and Tweedledion
    with a graphic and poem

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