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June 21, 2007

Well, let me start by saying this blog is not dead – just “sleeping”.

Well, it seems that the House of Commons has adjourned for the summer. Could have fooled me: nothing has actually really happened in the past month or so.

But, NBCD, you say*, a lot of stuff has happened around the budget, especially around the equalization issue. You have an MP being kicked out and provinces planning to sue.

I’ll say that none of this really means much in the grand electoral scheme of things.

First of all, this stuff is happening when the general public is out there enjoying the warming weather, not paying attention to the politicians.

Second of all, we are talking about equalization schemes here. Let’s face it: the general public has no freaking clue on how the equalization process works on a basic level – and the majority of the people interested in politics (aka us) don’t have a clue how it works on any detailed level. The point is, could a party run an election campaign on this issue? I’d say no.

Third of all, how many MP have switched allegiances in this Parliament? I’d hate to say it, but Bill Casey’s removal from the Conservatives ain’t going get much attention: Emerson, Khan, Turner, Comuzzi have already done it.

Finally, as for the provinces? Well let’s face it, there is not many Conservative seats (potential or present) in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. As for Saskatchewan and Calvert’s plans to sue the federal government, well, let’s just say that legal battles take a long time and that the “annoyance” to the Conservatives that is pushing the issues might be removed pretty soon.

Honestly, the most interesting thing about the past month is that we all seen what happens when the Conservatives run out of “script” – they start making mistakes. But even then, the polls (for those that pay attention to that sort of things) have not really shifted very much. I’d say that its when the Conservatives have scripting ready and people are paying attention that the Conservatives become dangerous. And both of those factors will probably be fulfilled in the fall.

The opposition to the Conservatives will have to bear that in mind.

*We’ll pretend you said it.

Categories: Conservatives, Federal
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