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The Powderkeg

March 11, 2007

This current situation regarding an federal election reminds me of the period before World War I: all sides are preparing their weapons, becoming more ready to fight; and like WWI, an election could begin by any little spark.

I am convinced that the federal election will probably happen sometime this year. For instance, the Conservatives are having the largest political training conference in the history of Canada in March. I know that the NDP has been doing training of its own, and I would not be surprised to hear of similar efforts from the Liberals. With all of this build-up, the fur has to fly some time – sooner rather than later.

As for timing, an election earlier this year will benefit the Conservatives, while a later election would benefit the Liberals. Right now, the Conservatives are preparing a budget with lots of goodies, and if the government falls on the budget or soon after, the Conservatives can use it to their advantage. A later election will give the Liberals more to to prepare, giving their the chance to get their policy and their leader straightened out.

But I’d say that the Liberals have the advantage over the Conservatives of being able to choose when to attack: there is really no acceptable way for the Conservatives to stage their own downfall. They can’t just call an election; that would be against the term limits legislation. I don’t see the Conservatives inventing a “unacceptable budget” that the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc could not accept; I mean, why give your opponents ammo to attack you with the policies that would be required to make a budget unacceptable?

Any federal election this year is going to be weird in the way that nobody wants it, yet wants it at the same time. I’d say that’s what makes the situation more volatile then ever.

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  1. March 18, 2007 at 6:41 pm

    It’ll be a mess for sure. Would be so nice if they could just hold it together for two years this time. I’m trying to encourage people to send a postcard to the leaders of our political parties. We’re not ready for an election, and they shouldn’t be either -> http://prax.ca/not_yet

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